February 9, 2012

Obama tops GOPs in VA -- Kaine edges Allen by 1 in Senate race -- Young voters: Government's broken, regulation too intrusive

YOUR DAILY POLLING UPDATE

OBAMA APPROVAL AVERAGE: 48%
(no change from yesterday; up 1 from a week ago)

HISTORIC COMPARISONS

Reagan at this point: 55%
Clinton at this point: 53%
Carter at this point: 52%
Bush 43 at this point: 52%
Bush 41 at this point: 44%

CLARUS GOP NOMINATION AVERAGE*
(among Republicans nationally)

Romney 33%
Gingrich 22% (down 1)
Santorum 18% (up 1)
Paul 15% (up 1)

VIRGINIA: GOP NOMINATION**
(among GOP voters; primary March 6)

Romney 68%
Paul 19%

VIRGINIA: GENERAL ELECTION**

Obama over Romney +4
Obama over Paul +7
Obama over Santorum +8
Obama over Gingrich +14

Obama's vote percentage: 47-51%. In 2008, he won Virginia with 52.7%.

VIRGINIA: SENATE**

Tim Kaine (D) 45% over George Allen (R) 44%

NORTH CAROLINA: GOP NOMINATION***
(among GOP voters; primary is May 8)

Romney 30%
Gingrich 30%
Santorum 20%
Paul 11%

YOUNG VOTER OUTLOOK****

Asked of registered voters age 18-29: "Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?"

Agree/Disagree
- The federal government in Washington is broken and needs to be reformed: 79%/16%
- There should be less government regulation of how people make daily choices in their lives and jobs: 72%/22%
- Both political parties are out of touch with the needs of average Americans: 70%/27%
- It would be a good thing for America if we had a major independent presidential candidate who was not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties: 56%/33%

UPCOMING GOP PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES

Feb. 28: Arizona, Michigan
March 3: Washington
March 6: Super Tuesday — Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10: Kansas
March 13: Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii
March 17: Missouri
March 20: Illinois
March 24: Louisiana

SOURCES:
Presidential job rating: average of the three most recently reported nationwide polls.
Historic comparisons: based on nearest chronological data points from Gallup surveys.
* Average of the two most recently reported nationwide polls: Rasmussen, Feb. 6, Reuters/Ipsos, Feb. 2-6, Gallup, Feb. 2-6. The last Clarus average was published on Feb. 7.
** Quinnipiac, Feb. 1-6
*** PPP(D), Feb. 3-5
**** Clarus Research Group for Hiram College's Garfield Institute, Jan. 12-17