February 22, 2012

Romney ties Santorum in MI average, leads AZ -- Santorum tops WA -- Flake ahead for AZ Senate -- Upcoming primary schedule

YOUR DAILY POLLING UPDATE

OBAMA APPROVAL AVERAGE: 48%
(no change from yesterday; down 1 from a week ago)

DIRECTION OF COUNTRY -- WEEKLY AVERAGE 
34% right/59% wrong
(right track up 2, wrong track down 2) 

CLARUS GOP NOMINATION AVERAGE*
(among Republicans nationally)

Santorum 35% (no change)
Romney 28% (down 2)
Gingrich 14% (down 1)
Paul 12% (no change)

NATIONWIDE: GENERAL ELECTION**

Associated Press/GfK poll (Feb. 16-20):

Obama over Romney +8
Obama over Santorum +9
Obama over Paul +9
Obama over Gingrich +10

Quinnipiac poll (Feb. 14-20):

Obama over Romney +2
Obama over Santorum +3
Obama over Gingrich +11

MICHIGAN: GOP PRIMARY***
(among GOP voters; primary Feb. 28)

Clarus average:

Santorum 33% (up 1)
Romney 33% (up 2)
Paul 11% (no change)
Gingrich 9% (down 1)

Rasmussen poll (Feb. 20):

Santorum 38%
Romney 34%
Paul 10%
Gingrich 9%

NBC News/Marist poll (Feb 19-20):

Romney 37%
Santorum 35%
Paul 13%
Gingrich 8%

Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll (Feb. 20):

Romney 32%
Santorum 30%
Gingrich 9%
Paul 7%

WeAskAmerica poll (Feb. 19):

Santorum 29%
Romney 29%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 10%

MICHIGAN: GENERAL ELECTION****

Obama over Romney +18
Obama over Paul +22
Obama over Santorum +26
Obama over Gingrich +28

Obama's vote percentage: 51-56%. In 2008, he won Michigan with 57%.

ARIZONA: GOP PRIMARY#
(among GOP voters; primary Feb. 28)

Clarus average:

Romney 38% (up 1)
Santorum 30% (no change)
Gingrich 16% (no change)
Paul 9% (no change)

NBC News/Marist poll (Feb. 19-20):

Romney 43%
Santorum 27%
Gingrich 16%
Paul 11%

WeAskAmerica poll (Feb. 19-20):

Romney 37%
Santorum 27%
Gingrich 15%
Paul 8%

CNN/Time poll (Feb. 17-20):

Romney 36%
Santorum 32%
Gingrich 18%
Paul 6%

PPP(D) poll (Feb 17-19) poll:

Romney 36%
Santorum 33%
Gingrich 16%
Paul 9%

ARIZONA: GENERAL ELECTION##

Romney over Obama +5
Santorum over Obama +3
Paul over Obama +2
Obama over Gingrich +5

Obama's vote percentage: 40-45%. In 2008, McCain defeated Obama in Arizona 53.8% to 45%.

ARIZONA: SENATE###

NBC News/Marist poll (Feb. 19-20):

Jeff Flake (R) 42% vs. Richard Carmona (D) 29%

PPP(D) poll (Feb. 17-19):

Jeff Flake (R) 46% vs. Richard Carmona (D) 35%

WASHINGTON: GOP NOMINATION####
(among GOP voters; primary March 3)

Santorum 38%
Romney 27%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 12%

UPCOMING GOP PRIMARY SCHEDULE
(Number = delegates, WTA = winner take all, PR = proportional)

Feb. 28:
Arizona (29), closed, WTA
Michigan (30), open, PR (at-large), WTA (cong. dist's)

March 3:
Washington (43), convention

March 6 Super Tuesday
Primaries:
Georgia (76), open, PR
Massachusetts (41), semi-closed, PR
Ohio (66), semi-closed, PR (at-large), WTA (cong. dist's)
Oklahoma (43), closed, PR
Tennessee (58), open, PR
Vermont (17), open, PR (at-large), WTA (cong. dist's)
Virginia (49), open, PR (at-large), WTA (cong. dist's)
Caucuses:
Alaska (27), caucus, PR
North Dakota (28), caucus
Idaho (32), caucus, PR

SOURCES:
Presidential job rating % direction of country: average of the three most recently reported nationwide polls.
* Average of the three most recently reported nationwide polls: Associated Press/GfK poll, Feb. 16-20; Quinnipiac poll, Feb. 14-20, Gallup, Feb. 16-20. The last Clarus average was published on Feb. 17.
** Associated Press/GfK, Feb. 16-20; Quinnipiac, Feb. 14-20
*** Average of the four most recently reported Michigan polls. The last Clarus average was published on Feb. 21.
**** NBC News/Marist poll, Feb. 19-20
# Average of the four most recently reported Arizona polls. The last Clarus average was published on Feb. 21.
## NBC News/Marist poll, Feb. 19-20
### NBC News/Marist poll, Feb. 19-20; PPP(D), Feb. 17-19
#### PPP(D), Feb. 16-19